Here’s the latest on El Niño predictions for 2026, based on recent official briefings and science news.
What’s expected: Most forecasts now indicate El Niño returning in 2026, with several sources suggesting a moderate to strong event could develop later in the year, potentially strengthening into a more intense El Niño phase by late 2026 or into 2027 in some models. This aligns with the broader shift from La Niña or neutral conditions earlier in 2026. [Source summaries indicate increasing confidence in onset and potential strength as spring 2026 progresses.][2][3][5]
Timing: The general window for onset given by multiple forecasts points to a June–August 2026 period for the emergence of El Niño, with continued reinforcement through the rest of 2026. Some updates mention possible onset as early as May–July depending on how ocean temperatures evolve. [NOAA CPC and WMO briefings commonly cite a May–July to June–August onset window.][3][5][8][2]
Confidence and uncertainties: While there is high confidence in an El Niño developing, the spring predictability barrier (a known uncertainty in forecasts during late spring) means exact strength and precise timing remain less certain. Forecast confidence tends to improve after April 2026. [NOAA CPC and WMO statements reflect this nuance.][5][2]
Impacts to watch: In the United States and globally, El Niño typically brings wetter conditions to the southern U.S. and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the northern U.S. and other regions, along with broader temperature effects. Some forecasts also note above-average global temperatures during strong El Niño years. Regional rainfall and monsoon patterns, including areas like India, may see deviations from typical norms. [WMO summaries and regional outlooks discuss expected rainfall and temperature deviations.][8][2]
Illustrative note:
If you’d like, I can pull the most recent official CPC/NOAA ENSO advisories and WMO Global Seasonal Climate Updates and summarize any concrete dates, probabilities, and regional impacts for your area in Los Angeles or more broadly.
Meteorologists predict a quick La Niña exit, with a 75% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral by Jan-March. Expect neutral conditions to persist through at least late spring with a growing chance of El Niño in 2026.
www.agweb.comThe El Nino weather phenomenon, which pushed global temperatures to record highs the last time around, is expected to re...
news.rthk.hkForecasts show an El Niño developing in 2026, with seasonal weather impacts over the United States, Canada, and Europe expected in 2026/2027
www.severe-weather.euThe warming El Niño weather phenomenon could return later this year as its cooling opposite La Niña fades away, the United Nations said Tuesday.
phys.orgWMO Report: El Nino Likely To Return As Early As May-July 2026. The latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update issued by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has indicated a clear shift in the Equatorial Pacific, with rapidly rising sea-surface tempe
menafn.comWMO report indicates El Nino's likely return by mid-2026, with models suggesting a strong event. It forecasts above-normal global temperatures and impacts on rainfall, with India's IMD predicting a below-normal monsoon this year.
newsable.asianetnews.comA team of researchers shows that a rare and extreme annular warming pattern in the tropical Pacific, combined with the accumulation of warm water in the upper western Pacific in spring 2026, will collectively drive a super El Niño event toward the end of this year.
www.eurekalert.orgExperts give El Niño conditions a 62 percent chance of emerging later this year.
www.newsweek.com