Here’s the latest I can share based on recent polls and coverage.
Direct answer
- There is notable public skepticism in Canada about a near-term Canada-U.S. trade deal, with multiple surveys showing Canadians doubt a quick agreement and concerns about whether the U.S. (particularly under the current administration) would live up to a new deal. Polls from late 2024 through late 2025 consistently highlight cautious optimism about pursuing a stronger deal, but with hesitation to rush a pact that could be fragile or incomplete.[3][4][8]
Key points from recent coverage
- Canadians largely want a solid, comprehensive deal even if it takes longer, rather than a quick agreement with concessions that might undermine economic interests. The sentiment is that patience could yield a better outcome, especially given tariff tensions and ongoing U.S. policy debates.[1][4]
- Public trust in the White House’s ability to honor negotiated terms has been mixed, with a substantial share skeptical about adherence to deal terms, which influences Canadians’ preference for diligence and thoroughness in negotiations.[4][1]
- Opinion varies by source and region, but polls repeatedly emphasize that cross-border trade remains a dominant concern, and a large portion of Canadians see a future Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade framework as essential for jobs and growth, even as people worry about the timing and scope of any new agreement.[8][3]
Context and interpretation
- The landscape for a Canada-U.S. trade deal is shaped by tariff disputes, sector-specific tensions (steel, aluminum, autos, lumber), and evolving political dynamics in both countries. This tends to produce a cautious public mood: Americans may view the deal more favorably in some polls, but Canadian sentiment generally leans toward securing stronger protections before rushing a deal.[5][1][4]
- For anyone tracking this issue, the key indicators to watch are: progress in substantive negotiations, how tariffs are adjusted or removed, and the upcoming review cycles of CUSMA/USMCA, which could recalibrate leverage and appetite for concessions.[1][5]
Would you like a short, cited briefing with the most recent poll numbers and the sources, or a quick timeline of recent developments and expected next steps? I can pull exact poll figures and dates if you’d prefer.
Sources
Almost two in five Canadians say recent court rulings in the U.S., and the ongoing legal battle over President Donald Trump's tariffs, have made them feel less confident in the future of trade relations, a new poll suggests.
www.ctvnews.caCanadians have little faith a trade deal with the US will be reached in the next six months, after US President Donald Trump blew up talks over an anti-tariff ad campaign launched by the province of Ontario.
www.bloomberg.comCanadians are split on whether a new trade deal with the United States should come quickly, and the canada us trade deal poll shows 66% do not trust Donald Trump to abide by one. Abacus Data shared the results exclusively with the Toronto Star, and the poll suggests many Canadians would rather wait …
www.el-balad.comMost Americans — including Republicans — continue to view Canada positively in economic and trade matters even as U.S. President Donald Trump directs anger at their northern neighbour.
www.bnnbloomberg.caOTTAWA — A new national poll finds that most Canadians see securing a new trade deal with the U.S. as crucial for domestic jobs and economic growth. The poll, conducted by Ipsos on behalf of the Montreal Economic Institute (MEI), shows that cross-border relations is a top-of-mind concern for Canadians, as the national economy falters under the weight of tariffs . … A formal review of Canada’s trilateral trade deal with the U.S. and Mexico is set for next summer. The Ipsos poll was conducted...
unpublished.caBy ANGUS REID INSTITUTE October 10, 2025 – New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that in contrast with U.S. President Donald Trump’s sentiment, that Canadians will be “very happy”…
armchairmayor.caOpposition to free trade is at a record high in Canada, and nearly twice as many Americans as Canadi
www.joc.com%
abacusdata.ca